2% mortgage rates: Real or marketing gimmick? | Mortgage Rates, Mortgage News and Strategy : The Mortgage Reports (2024)

Mortgage rates under 2.5% are real — for some

United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM) made headlines recently for offering 2.5% mortgage and refinance rates. Now, it’s lowered the bar even further with a 2.25% VA loan rate.

And other lenders are following suit. At the time of writing this, at least one lender in our network was offering 30-year refinance rates as low as 2.49% (2.644% APR).*

But how realistic are those rates? Is 2.5% the exception, or is it a real rate available to regular borrowers?

As always, it depends on what you qualify for.

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*Rate estimate assumes a 720 credit score and 73% LTV ratio

Whether or not you qualify for 2.25%, rates are ridiculously low

The truth is, the lowest advertised rates almost always go to top-tier borrowers; those with excellent credit scores and 20% down payments.

So a 2.25% mortgage rate will be out of reach for many. But the good news is, rates are still incredibly low across the board.

No matter how strong your application, lenders are offering better rates now than they were a year, six months, or even one month ago.

Just how low is low? Freddie Mac has been reporting average weekly mortgage rates since the 1970s. Consider where we’ve been.

2% mortgage rates: Real or marketing gimmick? | Mortgage Rates, Mortgage News and Strategy : The Mortgage Reports (1)

The rates we’re seeing today are part of a long trend. A very long trend.

Since the early 1980s mortgage rates have generally trended down. 30-year rates have marched from 16.63% in 1981, to just 3.13% in June 2020.

Time PeriodAverage 30-Year RateTime PeriodAverage 30-Year Rate
198116.63%Jan. 20203.62%
199010.13%Feb. 20203.47%
20008.05%Mar. 20203.45%
20086.03%Apr. 20203.31%
20123.66%May 20203.23%
20193.94%June 25, 20203.13%

Data: Freddie Mac

Many wouldn’t have thought it possible 20 years ago — or even one year ago — but rates in the low-3% range are now being widely quoted. And rates in the 2s are a reality for some.

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Advertised mortgage rates vs. the rate you get

You’ve probably heard the ads for $1 million term-life insurance for $26 a month. These policies do exist — but not if you’re a smoker or 65 years old.

In a similar sense, there are a lot of alluring mortgage offers out there. Rates that are so low they look like typos. But is such financing really available?

The answer is yes for some borrowers but no for others. To see who qualifies and who doesn’t, you have to look at the entire offer.

The truth about 2.25% VA loan rates

Consider the advertised 2.25% VA mortgage rate from UWM as an example. (Though this line of reasoning applies to non-VA loans, too.)

All real estate financing comes with conditions and requirements of some type.

In the case of the 2.25% VA mortgage offer, UWM provides an example that assumes a “30-year Fixed-Rate VA Loan at an interest rate of 2.25% and 80% loan-to-value (LTV).”

As you read the example and related materials, there are some questions to ask.

  • Are you VA qualified?
  • What’s your credit score? (A minimum of 640 is required)
  • Are you buying a home or refinancing?
  • If you’re buying, are you willing to put 20% down?
  • If you’re refinancing, will you keep at least 20% equity in the home?
  • What’s the rate for VA financing with nothing down?

VA financing is available with 0% down for buyers, and current homeowners can refinance 100% of the property’s reasonable value using the VA streamline (IRRRL).

But those taking advantage of zero-down or low-down-payment options likely won’t get the lowest possible rates.

There’s always a compromise between how strong your application is, and how low a rate lenders will offer you.

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The best mortgage rate — it’s complicated

Mortgage lenders are in business to make money. The last thing they want is to decline loans, turn away borrowers, or make the application process any more difficult than necessary.

So why do borrowers have to meet such high standards to get the best mortgage rates?

The thing is, there’s a lot going on behind the scenes when a mortgage lender determines your rate.

Investors and the secondary mortgage market

Mortgages are routinely sold into the secondary market to such buyers as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and investors worldwide.

The secondary market is an electronic “place” where mortgages are bought and sold. By selling mortgages, lenders get the cash they can use to make new loans.

But such investors have their standards.

Investors in the secondary market want to buy standardized products. They may require a loan to have a certain down payment, debt-to-income ratio, and credit score.

Why? Because they want to be sure they’re making a safe investment. These types of criteria help lenders and investors verify that borrowers will be able to pay back their mortgages.

Loan program requirements

There are also different requirements to qualify for a mortgage — and a low rate — depending on what type of loan you apply for.

You can buy with little or nothing down with backing from the FHA, VA, USDA, and private mortgage insurance. These programs protect lenders if borrowers don’t make their payments.

But they also have certain requirements borrowers must meet to qualify for program support. If a home buyer can’t meet program standards then the loan application will not go through.

Mortgage company requirements

Regardless of other requirements, lenders may have additional standards — so-called “layering” — that borrowers must meet. These standards arise because lenders want to reduce risk.

For instance, the official guidelines say you can get FHA financing with a credit score of just 500 and 10% down. But those loans can be hard to find in reality. In fiscal year 2019, HUD reports that just 1.04% of all forward FHA loans had credit scores below 579. That’s because many lenders simply don’t want loans with lower credit scores.

Similarly, lenders get to decide what rates they’ll offer to borrowers. And those rates change daily.

You might be offered a higher or lower rate from one lender depending on its current workload, what types of loans it prefers to take on, how available investor money is at the moment, and so on.

How to find your lowest rate

Despite the complicated factors that influence your mortgage rate, you don’t have to be a finance expert to find the best deal. You just have to be willing to do a little work.

You’ll get the best mortgage rate when you find the lender and loan program that best fit your needs.

Shop around and speak with a few lenders before committing to a mortgage. That way you can be sure you’re getting the lowest rate available to you.

Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
2% mortgage rates: Real or marketing gimmick? | Mortgage Rates, Mortgage News and Strategy : The Mortgage Reports (2024)

FAQs

Are advertised mortgage rates accurate? ›

Numerous factors can influence how different your actual mortgage rate will be from what you're expecting. Because a borrower's actual rate can be so personalized, it's hard to really know what you'll end up with until a lender sees all your information.

Who makes money when mortgage rates go up? ›

The financial sector has historically been among the most sensitive to changes in interest rates. With profit margins that actually expand as rates climb, entities like banks, insurance companies, brokerage firms, and money managers generally benefit from higher interest rates.

Are mortgage interest rates going up or down? ›

Current mortgage interest rate trends

The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate fell further, going from 6.29% to 6.17%. After hitting record-low territory in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates climbed to a 23-year high in 2023. Many experts and industry authorities believe they will follow a downward trajectory into 2024.

Are interest rates expected to drop in 2024? ›

The Federal Reserve has decided to hold interest rates steady after its meeting on June 11 and 12, 2024. The federal funds target rate has remained at 5.25% to 5.5% since July 2023.

Why are rising interest rates bad for real estate? ›

Fewer sellers, wary buyers, and less inventory are the effects of rising interest rates. According to the National Association of REALTORS (NAR), residential sales are down 34% year over year in December 2022. Consumers who still want to sell their homes need agents to help them get top dollar in a waning market.

Do mortgage interest rates really matter? ›

Monthly Payment

The home price, your down payment and interest rate will affect the amount of your monthly mortgage payment. If you buy a more expensive house, your monthly payment will be higher. And a higher interest rate will cause your monthly payment to go up as well.

Will mortgage rates ever be 3% again? ›

In summary, it is unlikely that mortgage rates in the US will ever reach 3% again, at least not in the foreseeable future. This is due to a combination of factors, including: Higher Inflation: Inflation is currently at a 40-year high in the US, and the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to combat it.

Who benefits from low interest rates? ›

Low interest rates mean more spending money in consumers' pockets. That also means they may be willing to make larger purchases and will borrow more, which spurs demand for household goods. This is an added benefit to financial institutions because banks are able to lend more.

Who gets the extra money from higher interest rates? ›

“The winners tend to be people who have high savings, and obviously benefit from high interest rates,” Oliver says. “The losers tend to be those with net debt. Those with more net debt tend to suffer because they pay more on interest rates servicing that debt.

What is the lowest mortgage rate in history? ›

The average 30-year fixed rate reached an all-time record low of 2.65% in January 2021 before surging to 7.79% in October 2023, according to Freddie Mac.

Should I lock my mortgage rate today? ›

Once you find a rate that is an ideal fit for your budget, lock in the rate as soon as possible. There is no way to predict with certainty whether a rate will go up or down in the weeks or even months it sometimes takes to close your loan.

What is a good mortgage rate for 30-year fixed? ›

Current mortgage and refinance interest rates
ProductInterest RateAPR
30-Year Fixed Rate7.00%7.05%
20-Year Fixed Rate6.69%6.75%
15-Year Fixed Rate6.43%6.51%
10-Year Fixed Rate6.35%6.43%
5 more rows

What is the mortgage rate forecast for the next 5 years? ›

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the mid-6% range through the end of 2024, potentially dipping into high-5% territory by the end of 2025. However, recent economic developments have led some forecasters to believe that rates will remain elevated at around 7% for the remainder of this year.

How high could interest rates go in 2025? ›

There are no sources for officially projected interest rates in five years, but the Mortgage Bankers Association does predict rates on 30-year mortgages will drop to 5.9% by the end of 2025. Fannie Mae predicts a 6.6% rate.

Will mortgage rates come down? ›

The mortgage rate forecast for 2024 is that rates are expected to go down, although it may take longer than had previously been hoped. In June 2024, we're seeing a mixed picture with the best mortgage rates on fixed rate mortgages; some are nudging up while others are being trimmed.

Why is my mortgage rate higher than advertised? ›

If your loan-to-value ratio is greater than 80%, it's considered high, and it puts the lender at greater risk. This may result in a higher mortgage rate, especially when combined with a lower credit score. The loan will usually require mortgage insurance, too.

Why is my loan interest rate higher than advertised? ›

So it's not that the lender is lying - they do offer that rate – it's just that they are selective in who they offer it to. The best APR rates are saved for customers with the best credit histories.

What is the difference between advertised interest rate and comparison rate? ›

While the interest rate shows the amount of interest you will pay as a percentage of your home loan, a comparison rate shows the interest and any home loan fees and other costs you will pay. That's why the comparison rate is usually higher than the advertised interest rate.

Why is my APR higher than advertised? ›

Real APR is the amount that you'll actually pay, rather than the representative APR rate used in adverts. Your real APR could be much higher than the advertised representative APR, typically if you don't have a well-established credit history, or are rebuilding poor credit.

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