AFL tiers: New premiership favourite? Green Tree Pythons? Groundhog Day? (2024)

Who are the favourites for the AFL premiership? Who are the legitimate contenders? And who should already be booking September holidays? Jake Michaels has ranked every club after the second month of the season in his May edition of tiers.

Note: ESPN's AFL tiers will be a monthly column throughout the 2024 season.

New premiership favourite

1. SYDNEY

It's pretty self explanatory, right? After two months of football, Sydney deserves premiership favouritism. John Longmire's side is rolling and, what's scary, is they're not even close to full strength. Last year's offseason acquisitions are firing, Isaac Heeney has been a revelation in the midfield, and Errol Gulden and Chad Warner have continued their rapid development. The Swans are going to be hosting finals at the SCG later this year; you can be sure of that!

Their best is certainly good enough to win the flag

2. COLLINGWOOD

3. GWS

4. CARLTON

5. MELBOURNE

All of these sides are in the hunt for the premiership in 2024 and nobody should be surprised to see any of them actually win it. We know Collingwood's best is good enough. Literally! And since that 0-3 start -- let's just call it a premiership hangover and move on -- they've rediscovered the edge that held them in such good stead throughout 2023. GWS is 17-5 since Round 13 last year, and when back to full fitness, can beat anyone, anywhere. Carlton could have, and maybe should have, won every game they've played. Alas they're 5-3, with tricky games against the Demons and Swans to come. Speaking of Melbourne, they are back in the top four after handing Geelong its first loss of the season and might have the best defence in the competition.

Green Tree Pythons

6. GEELONG

7. PORT ADELAIDE

Everything about the Green Tree Python screams danger. But in actual fact, it's a snake that's completely harmless and one you shouldn't worry about. Geelong and Port Adelaide in 2024 are no different. The Cats' 7-1 record screams flag favourite (or close) but their list of scalps -- outside the Blues -- doesn't prove they are a vastly improved side from the one that failed to play finals last year. And while there's no doubt they have quality forward and back, I just can't trust them between the arcs. Put simply, the Cats aren't what everyone is making them out to be. The Power have the ability to score as heavily as anyone, talent all over the park, and maybe the best midfield unit in the league, but they just continually fail to beat the better teams. Last time I checked, it's those sides you have to face in September.

As good as it gets

8. FREMANTLE

9. ESSENDON

10. ADELAIDE

These teams are either peaking or have already peaked in the first third of the season, and, if we're all being honest, are not in contention for the premiership. Sorry to break it to you! Fremantle's 3-0 start to the year will be its high point, the 0-3 run that followed only proving they are not a side to be taken seriously. Essendon sticks out like a sore thumb inside the top eight, the only club with a percentage under 100 -- 14.6% behind the next worst -- and even the most optimistic Bombers supporter wouldn't expect them to climb higher than fifth. Adelaide boasts wins over Carlton and Port Adelaide in the last three weeks but before that we had almost universally labeled them the season's biggest disappointment.

I don't know. I really, really don't know

11. BRISBANE

How do we actually assess this side after two months? Brisbane entered the year as flag favourites, quickly fell to 0-3 and calls for Chris fa*gan's head started to grow loud. They've steadied -- somewhat -- but even still, 80% of what we've seen from them this year is extremely underwhelming. But it's that 20% that has everyone afraid to write them off, even despite the plethora of injuries they are dealing with. The Lions could finish the year bottom six or top six, I honestly don't know.

Groundhog Day

12. WESTERN BULLDOGS

13. GOLD COAST

14. ST KILDA

It's a new season, yes, but it's the same old worrying stories for this group of teams, none of which have demonstrated any sort of consistency which suggests they can play a factor late in the year. Heck, nobody would be surprised if all three missed out on a finals spot. After the Western Bulldogs' most recent loss to Hawthorn, Luke Beveridge might just be the most under pressure coach in the sport. His side continues to be up and down like a yoyo. Gold Coast's season began with promise, but they've since lost four of their last six, including this past weekend's Q-Clash. Sensing a familiar theme there? And then there's St Kilda, a side that just can't -- or won't -- score. For the seventh season in succession, the Saints are averaging fewer than 78 points per game.

Lucky North Melbourne exists

15. WEST COAST

16. HAWTHORN

17. RICHMOND

It's a shock when any of these sides win a game, and this year they have a combined 5-19 record. With that said, you have to hand it to Adam Simpson and West Coast. What was shaping as another abysmal year now has some semblance of life. Since Round 4, the Eagles have played the Swans tough, beaten the Tigers and Dockers, and then held their own against the Suns and Bombers. Hawthorn, meanwhile, notched its best win of the year this past weekend, but outside of that they have been mostly uncompetitive and battling what feels like a never ending injury crisis. Richmond's win over Sydney is looking more and more bizarre with each passing week. And like the Hawks, just about everything aside from that performance has been hard to watch.

Lucky there's no relegation

18. NORTH MELBOURNE

Absolutely dire from top to bottom and that's unlikely to change before season's end. North Melbourne is winless, having lost all eight games by an average margin of 52 points. They have now lost 28 of their last 29 games, which has them entering the discussion for worst teams in football history. They are going to need far, far more than Alastair Clarkson and a bunch of high draft picks to turn this mess around. Don't expect it to come quickly, either.