What is the Fed interest rate today?
What is the current Fed interest rate? Right now, the Fed interest rate is 5.25% to 5.50%. The FOMC established that rate in late July 2023. At its most recent meeting in March, the committee decided to leave the rate unchanged.
| This Week | Year Ago | |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate (Current target rate 5.25-5.50) | 5.5 | 5 |
United States Prime Rate. target range for the fed funds rate at 5.25% - 5.50%.
The median estimate in the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, published on Wednesday afternoon, calls for a target range for the federal-funds rate of 4.5% to 4.75% at the end of 2024. That is unchanged from the last so-called dot plot, published in December.
| 30 year fixed | 6.87% |
|---|---|
| 15 year fixed | 6.43% |
| 10 year fixed | 6.26% |
| 5/1 ARM | 6.37% |
Mortgage rate forecasts from experts
Mortgage forecasters base their projections on different data, but most housing market experts predict rates will move toward 6% by the end of 2024. Ultimately, a more affordable mortgage market will depend on how quickly the Fed begins cutting interest rates.
The target federal funds rate, which is set by the Fed, serves as the basis for the prime rate. The federal funds rate is the interest rate commercial banks charge each other for overnight lending. Generally, the prime rate is about 3 percent higher than the federal funds rate.
The Fed raised the rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023 to combat ongoing inflation. After its December 2023 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) predicted making three quarter-point cuts by the end of 2024 to lower the federal funds rate to 4.6%.
The Prime Rate is the interest rate that banks use as a basis to set rates for different types of loans, credit cards and lines of credit. Certain mortgage rates, like variable rate mortgages, home equity loans and home equity lines of credit, may also be affected by the published rate.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve officials signaled Wednesday that they still expect to cut their key interest rate three times in 2024, fueling a rally on Wall Street, despite signs that inflation remained elevated at the start of the year.
How much will the Fed cut rates in 2024?
They in turn set a floor on mortgage rates and other types of fixed-rate debt. Right now, the Fed's short-term rate sits in a range between 5.25% and 5.5%, a 23-year high. Coming into 2024, investors expected the Fed to cut that rate six times this year, bringing it down to 3.75%—4%.
30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to fall to somewhere between 5.9% and 6.1% in 2024. Instead of waiting for rates to drop, homebuyers should consider buying now and refinancing later to avoid increased competition next year.
- Poppy Bank – 5.50% APY.
- My Banking Direct – 5.35% APY.
- BrioDirect – 5.35% APY.
- Vio Bank – 5.30% APY.
- Ivy Bank – 5.30% APY.
- TAB Bank – 5.27% APY.
- TotalDirectBank – 5.26% APY.
- Jenius Bank – 5.25% APY.
The average 30-year fixed rate reached an all-time record low of 2.65% in January 2021 before surging to 7.79% in October 2023, according to Freddie Mac.
| Bank | Term length | APY* |
|---|---|---|
| First Internet Bank | 12 months | 5.31% |
| EverBank | 9 months | 5.15% |
| Synchrony | 9 months | 4.90% |
| Marcus by Goldman Sachs | 14 months | 5.05% |
In summary, it is unlikely that mortgage rates in the US will ever reach 3% again, at least not in the foreseeable future. This is due to a combination of factors, including: Higher Inflation: Inflation is currently at a 40-year high in the US, and the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to combat it.
Importantly, the SEP projects that the Federal Funds rate will fall to 4.6% in 2024, 3.9% in 2025, and 3.1% in 2026. This implies three 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
Financial markets are currently predicting the first cut in interest rates will be in June 2024, falling to around 3% by the end of 2025, according to the latest forecasts from Capital Economics. As a general rule: if interest rates fall, the mortgage rate forecast would be for mortgage rates to fall too.
When inflation is running high, the Fed raises those short-term rates to slow the economy and reduce pressure on prices. But higher interest rates make it more expensive for banks to borrow, so they raise their rates on consumer loans, including mortgages, to compensate.
Will home interest rates go down?
When Will Mortgage Rates Go Down? Mortgage rates are expected to decline when Federal Reserve policymakers cut the benchmark interest rate, which is likely to happen in the second half of 2024. But as long as inflation runs hotter than the Fed would like, rates will remain elevated at their current levels.
Mortgage rates are going to stay above 6% through 2025, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs. Goldman said the decline in mortgage rates should offer marginal improvements in housing affordability. The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.62% last week after hitting a cycle-high of 7.8%.
“Assuming no significant economic shocks, mortgage rates are likely to continue slowly easing over the next few months, to reach a 6% to 6.5% range by spring of 2024.” Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Since they're based on the federal funds rate, prime rates also reflect the state of the economy. During a recession, prime rates are generally lower. For example, during the Great Recession the prime hit around 3.25%.
What is the highest prime rate in history? The highest prime rate in history was on December 19, 1980, standing at a record-breaking 21.5%. The Federal Reserve set the federal funds rate guidance to sustain the 21.5% prime rate until January 1, 1981.
